Why lithium prices are going up in 2026
Lithium prices are going up in 2026 because a 2 year slump finally ended, as demand caught up with a still growing supply, not a shortage. The United States Geological Survey states that a short term oversupply of lithium held prices down through the first half of 2025, and that considerable growth in electric vehicle sales in China and Europe, plus demand for battery energy storage systems, batteries that store electricity for the power grid, pushed prices up only in the second half of 2025. World lithium mine production, not counting United States output, still outgrew world consumption across all of 2025, output up 31% to about 290,000 tons against consumption up 20% to about 263,000 tons, so the rebound is demand catching up on a still growing supply, not a shortage.
Production figures exclude United States output, per the United States Geological Survey.
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| 2024 production | 222,000 |
| 2024 consumption | 220,000 |
| 2025 production | 290,000 |
| 2025 consumption | 263,000 |
That mechanism shows up directly in the price of battery grade lithium carbonate. The price peaked above 600,000 yuan a ton in 2022, fell as low as about 60,000 yuan a ton by early 2025, then climbed back to about 170,000 yuan a ton by June 2026, still nowhere near the 2022 peak, the trade publication Gasgoo reports.
The 2022 figure is a rounded floor for the peak reached during an earlier price spike, which the trade press describes as over 600,000, not a full year average. The 2026 figure is a June price, not a full year figure either.
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| 2022 peak | 600,000 |
| Early 2025 | 60,000 |
| June 2026 | 170,000 |
The rebound now shows up in mining company earnings
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, known as SQM, turned a 404.4 million dollar net loss in 2024 into a 588.1 million dollar net income in 2025, on revenue up 1.0% to 4,576.2 million dollars.
At Nova Andino Litio, we are operating at full capacity to meet our customer commitments while continuing to advance our expansion plans in the Salar de Atacama.
Ricardo Ramos, chief executive officer of SQM. Source 1.
Nova Andino Litio is the new name SQM gave its former lithium business at the Salar de Atacama in Chile. Ramos also said the company began observing early signs of an improved balance between lithium supply and demand starting in November 2025, and expects the global lithium market to grow about 25% in 2026, led by electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Ganfeng profit here is its third consecutive profitable quarter. It carries no percentage change because the company is coming from a loss, unlike the other 3 companies shown.
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| Tianqi Lithium | 1.88 |
| Ganfeng Lithium | 1.84 |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry | 3.03 |
| Zangge Mining | 1.574 |
Tianqi Lithium reported a first quarter 2026 net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, a 17 fold increase from a year earlier and a 5 fold jump from its fourth quarter 2025 profit, the trade publication Gasgoo reports. Ganfeng Lithium returned to profit for a third straight quarter, reporting 1.84 billion yuan in net profit for the first quarter of 2026, without a stated percentage change since a company moving from a loss has no comparable growth rate. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry and Zangge Mining also posted first quarter 2026 profit gains, 3.03 billion yuan and 1.574 billion yuan.
How high prices might still go
Analysts were more optimistic than the market has actually delivered. Citi and the trade publication Gasgoo both forecast in June 2026 that lithium carbonate would test about 250,000 yuan a ton around August or September 2026. The live price on September 22, 2026 sits at about 134,450 yuan a ton, down 16.23% over the trailing month, so that forecast has not yet arrived. Gasgoo also reports an industry expectation that prices settle into a 140,000 to 200,000 yuan range, with levels above 400,000 yuan a ton, the 2022 peak region, unlikely to return, a structural recovery rather than a new price spike.