The copper supply gap 2035 forecasters are sizing
Five forecasting organizations have each tried to size the same problem, the copper supply gap between what mines and recycled scrap can supply and what the world will need by 2035, and none of them uses the same year or the same unit. The size of that gap will shape how fast new mines get built, how tightly grids and vehicle makers compete for copper wire, and where the price of copper goes next.
BloombergNEF, in a research note by senior associate Rosemary Katz, forecasts a copper supply gap of 6 million metric tons a year by 2035, tied partly to data centers, the large computing facilities the note names as 1 demand driver among several.
The International Energy Agency projects supply from existing mines and announced projects will fall approximately 25% short of expected demand by 2035, under its Stated Policies Scenario, the main forecast track the agency uses, which assumes only policies already in place continue. That is narrower than the 30% shortfall the agency forecast in its prior year outlook, a news outlet that read the agency 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook directly reports, meaning the agency own newest forecast of the gap has shrunk.
What it would take to close the copper supply gap by 2035
Wood Mackenzie, in a blog post written by 5 named analysts, states the copper market needs 8 million metric tons a year of new mine capacity, plus 3.5 million metric tons a year of additional supply from scrap, meaning recycled copper put back into use without being mined again, to balance the market by 2035. Adding those 2 Wood Mackenzie figures together gives 11.5 million metric tons a year of new supply, a MAOWCE calculation run on those 2 Wood Mackenzie figures, not a number Wood Mackenzie states directly.
The total is a MAOWCE calculation adding the 2 Wood Mackenzie figures together, not a number Wood Mackenzie states directly.
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| New mine capacity | 8 |
| Scrap supply | 3.5 |
| Total new supply needed | 11.5 |
S and P Global sees the deficit still growing through 2040
S and P Global states global copper production will peak in 2030 at 33 million metric tons, while demand reaches 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% rise from current levels, leaving a supply deficit of 10 million metric tons by 2040, 25% below projected demand.
Bridging the impending supply gap depends not only on geology, engineering, and logistics and investment, but also on governance and policies.
Eleonor Kramarz, global head of critical minerals and energy transition consulting at S and P Global Energy. Source 2.
Production is projected to peak in 2030 while demand keeps climbing to 2040, S and P Global states.
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| 2030 peak production | 33 |
| 2040 demand | 42 |
| 2040 deficit | 10 |
The baseline these forecasts sit on
None of these forecasts start from zero. World mine production reached 23.0 million metric tons in 2025, the United States Geological Survey states in its February 2026 mineral commodity summary, the current output every 2035 and 2040 forecast above is measured against.
The electricity grid and electric vehicles, 2 of the biggest sources of copper wire demand, are both covered separately on this site. So is the price copper trades at, what scrap recycling prices are doing, and a separate copper mine discovery.