Copper mines are on pace for a 30% shortage by 2035, and electric cars are one reason why

The copper shortage behind the rise of electric cars

Copper mines that are already planned and funded will not produce enough copper to meet world demand by 2035, the International Energy Agency states. Expected mined supply from announced projects falls short of projected demand by an implied 30% in 2035, under the agency own baseline case, built from laws and policies already in place rather than promises still being made. The agency ties the widening copper shortage to declining ore grades, rising project costs and a sharp slowdown in new mineral discoveries, all of which make new supply harder to bring online. Electrification, the shift of cars, power grids and factory equipment away from burning fuel and onto electricity, is one driver of the demand behind that gap. Electric cars sit inside that shift alongside power lines, wind turbines and industrial motors, not as the only cause of it.

Where the extra copper demand is coming from

S and P Global own separate study puts a number on that demand. World copper demand is projected to reach 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% rise from current levels, while mine production is projected to peak earlier, at 33 million metric tons in 2030. The study puts the resulting shortfall at 10 million metric tons by 2040, 25% of that year demand, even after recycled copper scrap more than doubles. Subtracting that 10 million ton shortfall from the 42 million ton demand figure leaves 32 million metric tons of copper actually reaching the market in 2040, a MAOWCE calculation run on the study own 2 numbers, not a figure the study prints directly. What the study calls energy transition demand, electric cars, battery storage and renewable power together, is projected to reach 15.7 million metric tons by 2040, more than 7 million metric tons higher than today. Artificial intelligence data centers and defense spending together add another 4 million metric tons.

Copper is the great enabler of electrification, but the accelerating pace of electrification is an increasing challenge for copper.

Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S and P Global. Source 2.

The United States is already leaning harder on imports

The gap is already visible inside one country. United States mine production fell 5% in 2025, to 1.0 million tons, the United States Geological Survey states. Net import reliance, the share of the country copper use that has to come from abroad, rose to 57% in 2025 from 45% in 2024. The survey added copper to its own official list of critical minerals for the first time on 2025 11 07.

What it actually costs to mine more copper

Freeport McMoRan own quarterly report, read here directly rather than taken from a news summary, shows what closing the gap costs in practice. The company has identified an opportunity to more than double concentrator capacity at its Bagdad, Arizona mine, adding 200 to 250 million pounds of copper a year, at an estimated incremental capital cost of 3.5 billion dollars. The expansion only makes financial sense at an incentive copper price of about 4 dollars a pound, and would take 3 to 4 years to build once approved. A second, earlier stage project at El Abra, Chile could add more than 700 million pounds a year.

The honest limit on recycling

Recycling will not close the gap by itself. The International Copper Study Group states that recycled copper covered about one third of world copper use in 2024. Citing a 2023 analysis, the group states that even under optimistic assumptions, recycling could supply close to half of total demand by 2050 at best, leaving the rest to new mines.