Green hydrogen investment nears 10 billion dollars in 2026 as projects get cancelled and downsized

Green hydrogen investment nears 10 billion dollars in 2026 as projects get cancelled and downsized

Green hydrogen investment is set to reach nearly 10 billion dollars in 2026, the International Energy Agency reports in its newest global hydrogen review. Green hydrogen is made by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen with electricity, a process called electrolysis, in a machine called an electrolyser. Electrolysis now takes around 70% of that spending, overtaking a rival method that captures and stores carbon dioxide. Spending on low emissions hydrogen reached nearly 7 billion dollars in 2025, nearly double 2024. The same report explains why so many hydrogen projects are being cancelled or downsized even as investment climbs. More than 100 gigawatts of announced electrolyser capacity will lose any credible chance of running by 2030 unless it is financed by the end of 2027.

The pipeline of projects likely to be built by 2030 is shrinking, not growing

The agency own executive summary states plainly that its committed 2030 hydrogen pipeline fell this year, not rose. Committed projects, and those with a strong chance of running by 2030, declined from 10 million tonnes a year to just above 6 million tonnes, a reading taken directly from the agency own newest report. The wider pipeline of announced projects has also shrunk, to 27 million tonnes by 2030, mostly from delays past 2030 and cancellations. Investment dollars are rising. The number of credible projects for 2030 is not.

Two named projects show what clearing the 2027 deadline actually looks like

Two named projects show what a final investment decision, the point a company commits money to build, looks like. Orica, an Australian chemical company, first won government funding for a 50 megawatt electrolyser at its Kooragang Island ammonia plant in the Hunter Valley in July 2025, when the Australian Renewable Energy Agency committed up to 432 million Australian dollars in production credits. That was funding support, not a final investment decision. Orica reached that decision a full year later, in July 2026, when the funding agency confirmed it. The plant will produce about 4,700 tonnes of hydrogen a year, replacing the natural gas Orica burns to make its own ammonia. Sanjeev Gandhi, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Orica, called the funding crucial.

We're grateful for this crucial support, which brings us closer to realising the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub and advancing the decarbonisation of our Kooragang Island facility.

Sanjeev Gandhi, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Orica. Source 3.

Moeve, a Spanish energy company, reached its own final investment decision in March 2026, for a 300 megawatt first phase of a project called Onuba in Huelva, Spain, backed by more than 1 billion euros and 2 partners, Masdar and Enagas Renovable. The hydrogen is meant for aviation, transport and fertiliser and chemical production. Maarten Wetselaar, Chief Executive Officer of Moeve, called it a defining step for the company.

This decision to launch Southern Europe's largest green hydrogen plant marks a defining step in Moeve's Positive Motion transformation strategy.

Maarten Wetselaar, Chief Executive Officer of Moeve. Source 5.

GreentechLead reports a 3rd project, the Australian Renewable Energy Hub, shows the opposite outcome, downsized from a 26 gigawatt plan to a 1 gigawatt initial phase. Orica and Moeve first phase together add up to 350 megawatts that have already reached a final investment decision, a MAOWCE calculation, well under 1% of the more than 100 gigawatts still waiting on one before the end of 2027.