Replacing old wind turbines could nearly double wind power in the United States
Repowering, the industry term for replacing old wind turbines with newer, larger ones at the same site, could raise United States onshore wind capacity from 153.3 gigawatts today to about 313.8 gigawatts, a Stanford led study finds. Gigawatts measure how much electricity a wind fleet can generate at once, so this jump means the fleet could generate more than double what it produces now, all without building on a single acre of new land, adding a new transmission line, or waiting on a new site permit. Subtracting those 2 numbers, MAOWCE calculates that about 161 gigawatts of wind power sits unused in old wind turbines already standing on land that is cleared, permitted and wired in.
Repowering means replacing old wind turbines with newer, larger ones on the same site. The study modeled 4 different methods, this chart shows its main estimate of 313.8 gigawatts of potential capacity.
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| Capacity today | 153.3 |
| Potential after repowering | 313.8 |
The study tested 4 methods for how much power repowering could add
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, ran the numbers 4 separate ways, testing 4 different computer methods for judging which new turbines could physically fit where the old ones now stand. Its main method, called DBSCAN GA, produced the 313.8 gigawatt figure. The other 3 methods gave 251.8, 359.7 and 309.2 gigawatts, so the real potential sits somewhere across that spread, depending on what size turbine eventually replaces each old one. If every old turbine nationwide were replaced, the study finds wind could meet 21% of the electricity the country used in 2024, up from 10.5% today.
In Texas, the state with the most installed onshore wind capacity, the study estimates repowering could raise capacity from 42.8 gigawatts today to 84.7 gigawatts under its main estimate, with a range of 66.5 to 95.1 gigawatts depending on the method used.
The main estimate used elsewhere in this article, 313.8 gigawatts, sits inside this range, produced by 4 different modeling methods for the same repowering question.
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| Repowering potential | 251.8 to 359.7 gigawatts |
Actual wind turbine repowering has barely started
None of that potential has been captured yet. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory market reports the study cites found the country repowered only 1.6 gigawatts of wind capacity in 2021, 1.7 gigawatts in 2022 and 0.6 gigawatts in 2023, a small fraction of the 161 gigawatt opportunity described above. GE Vernova, a turbine manufacturer, booked orders in 2024 to repower turbines representing 1 gigawatt of capacity nationwide, and completed a real project at the Pyron Wind Farm in Texas, replacing 166 older turbines with its newer 1.6 megawatt turbine model, adding up to 20 years of operating life while reusing the existing towers, foundations, grid connections and roads.
Figures are from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory market reports cited in the study. Compare this pace to the 161 gigawatt opportunity described earlier.
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| 2021 | 1.6 |
| 2022 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 0.6 |
Why wind operators choose repowering over a new build
Uzair Memon, chief commercial officer for services in the onshore wind business at GE Vernova, explained why operators choose repowering.
It's one of the fastest ways to put more electrons on the grid while using the infrastructure that is already in place.
Uzair Memon, chief commercial officer for services in the onshore wind business at GE Vernova. Source 5.
Research on repowering has focused mostly on technology, cost and rules at a single site, said Eric Lantz, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher and operating agent for International Energy Agency Wind Task 26.
However, this misses critically important social and environmental considerations.
Eric Lantz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher and operating agent for International Energy Agency Wind Task 26. Source 4.