Who has no electricity at home
About 750 million people had no electricity at home as of 2023. 80% of them live in Africa south of the Sahara. Progress on this had run one direction for decades until 2022, when the number went up for the first time in a generation. On current policies the International Energy Agency expects 645 million people to still be without power in 2030, and 85% of them will be in the same region.
Why a kit and not a wire
A solar home system is a panel, a small battery, a few lights, and usually a socket for a phone. It is not a house wired to a power station. For a village a long way from the nearest line, running poles and wire out to it costs more than the electricity will ever earn back, and the wait is measured in decades. A kit arrives in a box.
The World Bank and the industry association put the reach of these kits at almost 400 million first time connections by 2030, and more than 560 million people are already served by one. In the agency pathway that actually hits the global target, more than half of everyone gaining access gets it first from off grid equipment, split between village mini grids and stand alone kits.
Off-grid solar is again proven as the most effective route to reach almost 400 million unelectrified people
Sarah Malm, executive director of the off grid solar industry association GOGLA. Source 2.
How households pay for a kit
Pay as you go rose 54% on the year before, cash fell 35%, and the market as a whole grew 1%. Figures are from the industry association, covering its own members.
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| Pay as you go | 2.35 |
| Paid in cash | 1.44 |
Pay as you go means the household pays a small amount every week or month, often by phone, and owns the equipment at the end. In the first half of 2025, 2.35 million kits sold that way in Africa south of the Sahara, up 54% on the year before, while cash sales fell 35% to 1.44 million. Pay as you go passed cash for the first time since 2018. Read those 2 numbers together, because the whole market grew only 1%. What changed was not how many kits sold. It was who was lending.
The money is 6 times short
The World Bank calls the difference a 6 fold increase on current investment levels. The 2 figures cover different periods, so dividing one by the other does not give the multiple.
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| Invested, 2022 to 2023 | 1.2 |
| Needed by 2030 | 21 |
Off grid solar investment ran at 1.2 billion dollars across 2022 and 2023. The World Bank puts the amount needed to reach those 400 million people at 21 billion dollars, and calls it a 6 fold increase on what the sector raises now. Only 22% of households without electricity can afford the monthly payments on even the cheapest kit.
What happens when you cannot pay
From a 2025 survey of 2,602 pay as you go customers in Kenya and Uganda, run by the industry association.
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| First 3 months | 20 |
| 4 to 6 months | 40 |
The kit is financed, and it has a remote switch inside it. Miss a payment and the lender turns the lights off from a server until the money arrives. Keep missing them and somebody comes to take the equipment back. The industry association surveyed 2,602 customers in Kenya and Uganda in 2025 and found 40% struggling to pay. The share climbs the longer a household has the system, from 20% in the first 3 months to about 40% by month 6. Among those struggling, 40% were carrying other debts, and fewer than a third had a stable income.
I have not seen any data to indicate that lockouts have a significant impact on payment rates. They are by no means a magic bullet for collections.
Daniel Goldfarb, chief executive of the lender Lendable. Source 5.