How much of Europe minerals could come from recycling
A European Union funded research project called FutuRaM says recycling could replace 56% of the minerals Europe imports today, if the continent recovers what is already sitting inside its own waste, source 2. Critical minerals are raw materials the European Union has judged essential to its economy and at risk of running short, and that list has grown from 14 substances in 2011 to 34 in 2023, source 5. FutuRaM tracked 42 of these elements across 7 kinds of waste, batteries, construction and demolition rubble, wind turbines, scrapped cars, mining waste, industrial slag and ash, and electronics, source 2.
The 56% figure is a ceiling under a full recovery scenario, not a forecast of what will actually happen, source 2. Under that scenario, the FutuRaM project own site states Europe could recover between 4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes of critical raw materials a year by 2050, source 2. That is a different measure than the widely repeated estimate of up to 6 million tons of minerals sitting inside European waste by the same year, a stockpile figure rather than a yearly recovery figure, and reading the project own site directly is what shows the 2 are not the same number, source 2.
The reason this matters now is how concentrated supply already is. China supplies 100% of the European Union heavy rare earth elements, Turkey supplies 99% of its boron, and South Africa supplies 71% of its platinum, the European Commission own list finds, source 5.
Figures are the European Commission own count of European Union supply concentration by mineral, 2023.
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| Heavy rare earth elements, from China | 100 |
| Boron, from Turkey | 99 |
| Platinum, from South Africa | 71 |
The legal floor for 2030 sits far below the 2050 potential
A separate, binding law already sets nearer term rules. The Critical Raw Materials Act requires that by 2030, at least 10% of the annual consumption of strategic raw materials in the European Union comes from domestic extraction, at least 40% from domestic processing, and at least 25% from domestic recycling, source 4. It also caps any single country from supplying more than 65% of the Union total of any 1 strategic raw material, source 4.
A 4th target in the same law caps any single country from supplying more than 65% of the European Union total for any 1 strategic raw material, not shown here since it measures concentration, not a domestic production share.
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| Domestic processing | 40 |
| Domestic recycling | 25 |
| Domestic extraction | 10 |
The 56% recycling potential FutuRaM projects for 2050 is more than double the 25% domestic recycling floor the law sets for 2030, a comparison this article calculates from the 2 figures.
Whether Europe realises this potential depends on the choices made now, on legislation, recycling infrastructure, and data collection.
Pascal Leroy, director of the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Forum, which reviewed the FutuRaM report. Source 1.
Recycling rates today lag both numbers
Right now, recycling runs behind both figures. The European Environment Agency counts the European Union electronic waste recycling rate at 30.8% in 2023, down from a peak of 38.7% in 2019 and up only slightly from 30.4% in 2010, source 3. Packaging recycling reached 67.5% and municipal waste recycling reached 47.7% in 2023 under the same count, so electronics recycling lags other waste streams by a wide margin, source 3.
The rate peaked in 2019 before falling back by 2023.
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| 2010 | 30.4 |
| 2019 | 38.7 |
| 2023 | 30.8 |
Whether the 56% figure becomes real depends on what Leroy names, legislation, recycling infrastructure and data collection, not on discovering new deposits.