The decision on whether there will be a new copper tariff in 2026 is 91 days overdue, and the rate could still reach 30% by 2028

Whether there will be a new copper tariff in 2026 is still unresolved

Whether there will be a new copper tariff in 2026 remains unresolved. President Trump signed Proclamation 10962 on July 30, 2025, using the national security law known as Section 232 to set an immediate 50% tariff on semi finished copper products, in effect since August 1, 2025, higher than the 30% the Commerce Secretary had recommended. The same proclamation recorded a far larger recommendation that has never been adopted, a phased tariff on refined copper, the raw metal itself, of 15% starting in 2027 and 30% starting in 2028. Before acting on that rate, the Commerce Secretary had to send the President an update on domestic copper markets by June 30, 2026. That update arrived on time, a White House official confirmed, but gave no indication of what it recommended or when a decision might follow. As of September 29, 2026, that gap is about 91 days long, a MAOWCE calculation counting from the June 30, 2026 deadline.

The tariff rests on a national security finding, not an economic one. Copper is the second most widely used material the Department of Defense buys, the proclamation states.

The metal's exceptional electrical conductivity and durability also make it indispensable to critical infrastructure sectors that support the American economy, national security, and public health.

Proclamation 10962, the presidential order that imposed the copper tariffs. Source 2.

The tariff base already changed once, and its reach keeps growing

Effective April 6, 2026, the tariff base changed from taxing only the copper content of a product to taxing its full value, so the government now charges 50% on the full value of semi finished copper products and 25% on the full value of copper intensive derivative products, the Congressional Research Service reports. A Federal Register notice published August 6, 2026 proposed adding more copper containing goods to the tariff under a process the proclamation itself created. In 2025, before that base widened, the United States imported 16.2 billion dollars worth of covered copper products, the Congressional Research Service reports, 7.2 billion dollars of semi finished copper products and 9.0 billion dollars of copper intensive derivative products.

Buyers are already paying for a decision that has not been made

Buyers are not waiting to find out what happens next. COMEX copper futures hit an all time record of 14,781 dollars a tonne, about 6.70 dollars a pound, on August 5, 2026, which Tech Times attributes to traders and buyers stockpiling ahead of any future refined copper duty. Barclays Research estimates a 50% copper tariff would add about 700 dollars in materials cost to every vehicle, a cost Tech Times says automakers would pass on to buyers. A trade association survey found half of United States printed circuit board makers expect manufacturing costs to rise 16% to 30% because of the tariff already charged since August 2025. Goldman Sachs Research had forecast in May 2026 a refined copper tariff of at least 25% before mid June 2026. That deadline came and went with no announcement.

A decision today would not fix supply for years

Even if the decision comes, it will not fix supply fast. The United States relied on imports for about 57% of the refined copper it used in 2025, the United States Geological Survey estimates, as reported by the Congressional Research Service. New copper mines take an average of 16 to 17 years to go from discovery to production, Tech Times reports, so any tariff driven mining investment today would not reach buyers for well over a decade. Until the refined copper decision is made, the industry the tariff is meant to protect and the buyers it is meant to reshape both remain exactly where they were on June 30, 2026.