Chile copper production is falling in 2026, down 9% in March as its 3 biggest mines shrank together

Chile copper production is falling in 2026

Chile copper production is falling in 2026, and it is not 1 mine having a bad month. Chile mined 431 thousand metric tons of copper in March 2026, the government copper commission Cochilco reports, 9% below the 474 thousand metric tons mined in March 2025. That followed a 15% rebound from February 2026, when output was 375 thousand metric tons, so March was still the weaker month by that year on year measure. Through the first quarter of 2026, Chile produced 1.217 million metric tons in total, 6% below the 1.291 million metric tons produced in the first quarter of 2025. Cochilco attributes the fall to lower planned ore grades, meaning the rock being mined yields less copper per ton than before, along with maintenance and operational restrictions at major mines, and projects the full year will land close to 2% below 2025.

Chile mines about 23% of the world copper supply, a MAOWCE calculation dividing the United States Geological Survey own estimated Chile 2025 production, 5,300 thousand metric tons, into its estimated world total for that year, 23,000 thousand metric tons. That makes a national slowdown here a slowdown in the metal electric vehicles, wind turbines and grid upgrades all need.

All 3 of the biggest mines in Chile shrank together in March

The national drop was not carried by 1 outlier. Cochilco data compiled by Reuters and reported by Mining Weekly shows Codelco, the copper mining company the Chilean government owns, produced 110,900 metric tons in March 2026, down 9.98% from a year earlier. BHP Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, produced 101,600 metric tons, down 15.75%, the steepest fall of the 3. Collahuasi, the mine that Glencore and Anglo American own together, produced 31,400 metric tons, down 10.80%.

Cochilco own report comparing mine costs shows this was not limited to the 3 biggest names. Of the 21 mining operations in its 2025 sample, representing 94.4% of that year national production, 11 cut output, and their combined production fell 77.3 thousand metric tons, 1.5%. Escondida alone supplied 24.8% of Chile 2025 national total and Collahuasi 7.5%, Cochilco reports, so how these 2 operations perform still sets the direction for the whole country.

The audit behind part of the swing at Codelco

Codelco own numbers explain why December 2025 looks so different from the months around it. Codelco reported December 2025 output of 172,300 metric tons, its highest month this decade, against a monthly average of 105,600 metric tons for January through November 2025. An internal Codelco audit later found that about 20,000 metric tons had been counted as finished product, meaning copper ready to sell, despite not meeting the company own rules for that status, and that an unnamed senior executive had authorized including them. Output then fell to 91,000 metric tons in January 2026, a 47% drop from December, before recovering to the 110,900 metric tons recorded in March.

The direct operational impact may be limited, because 20,000 tonnes alone do not change Codelco's structural production capacity.

Juan Carlos Guajardo, executive director of the mining consultancy Plusmining. Source 3.

Why a shrinking Chile matters for global copper

Cochilco own outlook already prices in a further drop for the full year, close to 2% below 2025, so the weak March is not read internally as a 1 month blip. The mechanism behind it, lower ore grades, maintenance and an unresolved audit at the state owned miner, matters as much as the headline number, because together they point to a supply constraint that higher prices alone cannot quickly fix.