3 official futures for 1 fleet
The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body that tracks energy markets worldwide, models 3 scenarios for how fast the world adopts electric cars and other clean energy technology through 2040. The Stated Policies Scenario, called STEPS, reflects the policies governments have actually put in place today. The Current Policies Scenario, called CPS, is a more conservative case that assumes slower adoption. The High Demand Scenario, called HDS, assumes faster adoption. By 2040, demand for the whole basket of critical minerals the agency tracks sits around 10% lower in the CPS than in STEPS, and around 16% higher in the HDS, the agency states.
STEPS is the Stated Policies Scenario, the central case reflecting the policies governments have actually put in place today.
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| Lithium | 3.4 |
| Graphite | 1.9 |
| Nickel | 1.7 |
| Rare earths | 1.5 |
| Copper | 1.3 |
| Cobalt | 1.3 |
Lithium has to grow fastest
Lithium, the light metal used in almost every electric car battery on the market, is the fastest growing mineral the agency tracks. Under STEPS, world lithium demand grows 3.4 times between 2024 and 2040. The reason is direct. Energy technology already used 74% of world lithium demand in 2025, and that share climbs to 85% by 2030 and 90% by 2040, mostly from electric cars and battery storage. Mining has to keep pace. The United States Geological Survey, a government agency that measures mineral production worldwide, counted world lithium mine production at 290,000 tons in 2025, not including the United States itself. To meet the primary lithium supply the energy agency projects for 2040, mined lithium output needs to grow by around 2.5 times its current level, the agency states.
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| 2025 | 74 |
| 2030 | 85 |
| 2040 | 90 |
One metal does not follow the same curve
Not every mineral tracks lithium. Cobalt, a metal used inside some battery cathodes, the part of a battery that stores its charge, behaves differently because manufacturers are choosing chemistries that use less of it. The share of world cobalt demand coming from energy technologies rises from 35% in 2025 to 45% by 2030, then slips back to 42% by 2040, a chart in the same agency report shows. Lithium iron phosphate, a battery chemistry that uses no cobalt at all, reached more than 55% of electric car batteries deployed worldwide in 2025, up from under half the year before, according to the agency report Global EV Outlook 2026. The agency states plainly that cobalt demand for electric car batteries has already been revised down from the outlook the agency published a year earlier, because of this shift in chemistry.
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| 2025 | 35 |
| 2030 | 45 |
| 2040 | 42 |
Cobalt still grows, for different reasons
Total cobalt demand still grows, because electronics, aerospace and other industries keep using more of it regardless of what carmakers choose, the agency states. World cobalt demand overall grows more than 30% from today to 2040 under STEPS, even as the share coming from car and storage batteries slips back after 2030. On the supply side, the United States Geological Survey counted world mined cobalt production at 310,000 tons in 2025. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces 73% of mined cobalt worldwide, introduced a cobalt export quota of 96,600 tons a year for 2026 and 2027, a policy that caps how much of that supply can leave the country no matter how fast mines can dig it up. Which mineral needs more mining by 2040 comes down to a battery chemistry choice being made in factories today, not simply to how many electric cars get built.