Why the cobalt price fell
World cobalt supply kept growing even as a rising share of new batteries used none of the metal at all. Lithium iron phosphate, a battery chemistry that replaces cobalt with iron and phosphorus, took a growing share of the market in China, and the United States Geological Survey states that this substitution, together with market oversupply, helped push the price down. The price of cobalt cathode, refined cobalt metal, fell from 30.78 dollars a pound in 2022 to 16.77 dollars a pound in 2024, according to the survey. World mine production still rose, from 302,000 metric tons in 2024 to an estimated 310,000 metric tons in 2025. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mined an estimated 230,000 metric tons of that total in 2025, about 73% of world production.
The survey gives the 2025 figure as its own estimate for the year, not a final count.
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| 2021 | 24.21 |
| 2022 | 30.78 |
| 2023 | 17.20 |
| 2024 | 16.77 |
| 2025 | 21 |
The Congo answered with a quota
In February 2025, the Congo banned cobalt exports outright, a move the geological survey says was meant to address market oversupply and low prices. The ban lasted roughly 8 months. ARECOMS, the Congo cobalt regulator, replaced it on October 16, 2025 with a quota, a limit on how much cobalt a company may legally export in a set period. The regulator set a total 2026 quota for the Congo of 96,600 metric tons, made up of an 87,000 metric ton base allocation plus 9,600 metric tons the regulator holds back for itself. That total is about 42% of the 230,000 metric tons the country mined in 2025, a MAOWCE calculation dividing the 2 sourced figures rather than a number either source states directly. Each company quota is based on what it exported between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2024.
One company already living inside it
Glencore, one of the largest cobalt miners operating in the Congo, produced 38.2 kilotons of its own sourced cobalt in 2024 and 36.1 kilotons in 2025, a drop the company puts at 5%. Its Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda mines were given a combined 2026 quota of 22.8 kilotons, about 63% of what they produced in 2025, a MAOWCE calculation from the company production report. Glencore says it chose to prioritize copper output over cobalt because of the export restrictions, that cobalt made above quota is being stored inside the country rather than exported, and that neither mine exported any cobalt in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Congo production for 2025 is from source 1. The Congo 2026 quota is from source 2, confirmed independently by source 5. Glencore figures are from source 3, its own production report.
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| Congo mine production, 2025 | 230 |
| Congo 2026 export quota | 96.6 |
| Glencore mine production, 2025 | 36.1 |
| Glencore 2026 export quota | 22.8 |
What the quota means in Kolwezi
Kolwezi, in Lualaba province, is at the center of Congo copper and cobalt mining. On December 19, 2025, Louis Watum, the Minister of Mines, signed a decree suspending artisanal mining, mining done by individual diggers using hand tools rather than heavy machinery, in Kolwezi, to keep diggers off land held by industrial mining companies. Global Voices reports that looting, vandalism and casualties followed. Kamoto Copper Company said diggers repeatedly trespassed at its T17, KOV and Mashamba mining sites, and its workers marched to the provincial government of Lualaba on December 3, 2025 to protest the trespassing and the violence. Mining employs more than 3,000,000 people in the Congo and provides more than 30% of the national budget, according to Global Voices.
For example, yesterday, they beat us up, hitting a workmate in the left eye.
Junior Biane, a machine operator at an industrial mine near Kolwezi. Source 4.